Growth & Assumptions

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Market & Balance Sheet Data

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Cash Flow Projection

Year2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Free Cash Flow-1,830.65-1,876.42-1,923.33-1,971.41-2,020.7-2,073.23-2,127.14-2,182.44-2,239.19-2,297.41
Terminal Value----------29,579.09
Cumulated PVRunning Sum-1,649.23-3,172.18-4,578.5-5,877.12-7,076.31-8,184.74-9,209.3-10,156.32-11,031.67-22,258.08
* Scroll horizontally for more yearsAll figures in USD Millions

Valuation Breakdown

Enterprise Value (EV)-$22,258.08
(+) Cash & Investments$6,469
(-) Total Debt$36,884
Equity Value-$52,673.08
Shares Outstanding660.3
Fair Value Per Share-$79.77
All figures in USD Millions

Calculated Fair Value

$-79.77
Current Price$12.52
Margin of Safety-737.15%
Sell

AAL (AAL) DCF Valuation Analysis

Independent intrinsic value calculation based on latest financial reports.

Our AAL DCF calculator utilizes a two-stage Discounted Cash Flow model to estimate the true value of AAL stock. As of the most recent quarterly report (12/31/2025), AAL generated -$1,786,000,000 in Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) Free Cash Flow.

Key Valuation Metrics for AAL

Forward P/E
4.59
Price to Book
0.00
Margin of Safety
N/A
Intrinsic Value
N/A

By discounting AAL's future cash flows using an expected return of 11%, we can determine if the stock is currently trading at a margin of safety. A negative margin of safety suggests that market expectations may be too high relative to the company's historical cash flow productivity.

Final Verdict

For AAL to be considered a fair investment at current levels, it would need to sustain a cash flow growth rate of approximately 2.50% for the next five years. This valuation model accounts for AAL's current cash position of $6,469,000,192 and total debt of $36,884,000,768. Currently trading at a premium to its intrinsic value, investors should carefully consider the growth assumptions required to justify the current price.

Why use DCF for AAL?

Discounted Cash Flow is widely considered the most accurate method for valuing mature companies like AAL. Using our Free DCF Calculator, you can customize every assumption in this model to see how it affects the intrinsic value.

Based on Owner Earnings (FCF)
Includes Balance Sheet adjustments
Customizable growth assumptions

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