Growth & Assumptions
Market & Balance Sheet Data
Cash Flow Projection
Valuation Breakdown
Calculated Fair Value
UPS (UPS) DCF Valuation Analysis
Independent intrinsic value calculation based on latest financial reports.
Our UPS DCF calculator utilizes a two-stage Discounted Cash Flow model to estimate the true value of UPS stock. As of the most recent quarterly report (12/31/2025), UPS generated $4,765,000,000 in Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) Free Cash Flow.
Key Valuation Metrics for UPS
By discounting UPS's future cash flows using an expected return of 11%, we can determine if the stock is currently trading at a margin of safety. A negative margin of safety suggests that market expectations may be too high relative to the company's historical cash flow productivity.
Final Verdict
For UPS to be considered a fair investment at current levels, it would need to sustain a cash flow growth rate of approximately -3.20% for the next five years. This valuation model accounts for UPS's current cash position of $5,887,000,064 and total debt of $28,590,000,128. Currently trading at a premium to its intrinsic value, investors should carefully consider the growth assumptions required to justify the current price.
Why use DCF for UPS?
Discounted Cash Flow is widely considered the most accurate method for valuing mature companies like UPS. Using our Free DCF Calculator, you can customize every assumption in this model to see how it affects the intrinsic value.